Business confidence in India falls in Q4, but optimism remains, finds ACCA

Mumbai: Business confidence in India has fallen in Q4 but remains more optimistic of a swift recovery than the global average, according to the latest Global Economic Conditions Survey published today by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (Institute of Management Accountants).

The survey of over 4,500 finance professionals and business leaders worldwide has found that the economic outlook has improved slightly in the US and China over the last quarter, while confidence dipped in South Asia in Q4, however respondents are more optimistic about their future economic prospects.

ACCA argues the fall in confidence has been caused by:

- Government investment falling to its lowest level since the start of 2016, with many developed markets still firmly in austerity mode
- Changes in the political landscape stemming from the recent US election
- Uncertainty over US / China trade developments
- Concerns over Brexit as well as forthcoming European Elections

ACCA’s Head of International Development Md. Sajid Khan, said, “Sentiment has fallen in India to the lowest level since the start of 2016. This is in part due to a very uncertain global climate, but also primarily due to the challenges of implementing the demonetisation campaign which has been extremely disruptive to normal business operations. Yet there is reason to believe this fall in confidence is a blip. Recent economic reforms have improved the outlook for growth, and confidence over the past year has been higher than the global average. Overall 30% of respondents in South Asia are more optimistic about their future prospects, which is higher than in Europe and Asia-Pacific.”

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. Its main indices are good predictors of GDP growth in themed countries and its daily trend deviations correlate well with the VIX or ‘fear’ index, which measures expected stock price volatility.

Fieldwork for the Q4 2016 GECS took place between 24th November and 13th December 2016 and attracted 4,551 responses from ACCA and IMA members around the world, including more than 350 CFOs.