India’s growth strong but risks rising: CEA Nageswaran

Washington, April 15 (IANS) India’s economic growth remains robust, but rising global uncertainties could weigh on the outlook in the coming months, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran said on Wednesday.​

Speaking at the US-India Economic Forum 2026, Nageswaran said India has sustained strong growth in recent years, but cautioned that external risks have intensified.​

“We shouldn’t underestimate or understate the wide range of uncertainty that prevails,” he said, referring to global conflict and economic volatility.​

India’s GDP growth for the year ending March 2026 is estimated at 7.6 per cent, continuing a streak of over 7 per cent growth in the post-COVID period.​

“Post Covid, India has enjoyed seven plus per cent real GDP growth, and that’s a very big achievement in a world where growth has become scarce,” he said.​

He noted that the momentum entering the new financial year remains strong, with agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors all performing well.​

However, Nageswaran said the global environment has changed sharply in recent weeks. “February 28 morning, everything changed,” he said, referring to the escalation of geopolitical tensions.​

The risks include higher energy prices, supply disruptions and volatility in capital flows, all of which could affect growth, inflation and external balances.​

Despite these challenges, he emphasised that India is well-positioned to manage the impact. “We are facing them with a position of macroeconomic strength,” he said.​

India’s growth has been supported by strong domestic demand, infrastructure investment, and policy reforms that have improved supply-side capacity.​

Nageswaran also pointed to progress in fiscal consolidation, with deficits moderating even as public investment has increased significantly.​

At the same time, he said policymakers must remain vigilant and respond quickly to emerging risks.​

“To some extent… a slight perturbation to the business-as-usual forecast will probably do a disservice rather than being helpful,” he said, underscoring the need for realistic assessments.​

India’s ability to sustain high growth will depend on managing external shocks while continuing structural reforms and investment.​

India is currently the world’s fourth-largest economy and is targeting sustained high growth to achieve its long-term development goals.

--IANS

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