Bihar Assembly Elections: Acid Test for NDA and Mahagathbandhan

By Rajat Kumar Mohindru, Journalist, Jalandhar City
Bihar will go to polls on November 6 and November 11, 2025, to elect 243 members of the Legislative Assembly. The counting of votes will take place on November 14, 2025. This election is expected to be fiercely competitive, as the 2020 Assembly Elections witnessed an extremely narrow margin in the vote share between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) alliance of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
In the 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections, the NDA won 131 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 111 seats, and AIMIM bagged one seat. Within the NDA, JD(U) won 71 seats, BJP 53, LJP 2, HAM 1, and Independents 4. On the other hand, in the Mahagathbandhan, RJD won 80 seats, INC 27, CPI (ML) 3, and Independents 1.
The 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections turned out to be one of the closest electoral battles in the state’s history. The NDA secured 37.26% of the vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan got 37.23%. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, followed closely by the NDA with 74. Within the NDA, JD(U) bagged 43 seats, while RJD’s vote share stood at 23.11%, BJP’s at 19.46%, and JD(U)’s at 15.39%. Among others, INC won 19 seats, CPI(ML) 12, VIP 4, AIMIM 5, BSP 1, LJP 1, and Independents 1. Overall, the NDA won 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110.
In 2025, the state once again braces for a multi-cornered contest. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (JD-U) and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary (BJP) are confident about retaining power, but both leaders will have to prove their popularity among the voters. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is also contesting, though Kishor himself is not in the fray.
The Mahagathbandhan has announced Tejashwi Yadav as its Chief Ministerial candidate, with Mukesh Sahani declared as one of the Deputy Chief Ministerial candidates; another Deputy CM name is expected to be announced later. The division of votes among multiple parties is likely to have a significant impact on the final results.
Voters are expected to judge the contest based on the performance of the ruling NDA government over the past five years, as well as the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government at the Centre. Given the razor-thin margin of votes in 2020, the party with a stronger developmental record and positive public perception may gain a decisive edge. The voter turnout percentage will also play a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
Top national leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP National President J.P. Nadda, Union Ministers Giriraj Singh, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Chirag Paswan, and Lalan Singh, along with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, will campaign for the NDA. Meanwhile, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, Rabri Devi, and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi are expected to lead the campaign for the Mahagathbandhan.
The results of the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections will not only decide who governs the state for the next five years but will also have a significant impact on the future political landscape of Bihar.
(Views are personal)