Acid test for political parties ahead of April 2026 assembly elections in five states

The popularity of both national and regional political parties will be tested in the upcoming Legislative Assembly elections in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Assam, scheduled for April 2026. Voters in these states will elect their representatives, and every party is confident of performing better than expected and forming the government. No party is leaving any stone unturned to attract voters. Whoever wins will emerge as the ultimate victor. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP National President Nitin Nabin, Union Ministers, and BJP office-bearers are actively campaigning in these states with the hope that the BJP will form governments after the elections.

In West Bengal, the focus is on the results of 294 Assembly seats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have expressed confidence that the BJP will perform strongly, while the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee is equally confident of retaining power. In the 2021 Assembly elections, TMC secured 49% vote share, BJP 38.6%, and the Sanjukta Morcha 9.4%, with the rest going to independents and other parties—a gap of just 10.4% between TMC and BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, TMC secured 46.16%, BJP 39.8%, and INC 4.72%, reducing the gap between TMC and BJP to 6.8%. Mamata Banerjee is campaigning intensively, and the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and public support.

In Tamil Nadu, during the 2021 Assembly elections, DMK secured 38% vote share, INC 4.3%, AIADMK 33.5%, and BJP 2.1%. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, DMK secured 26.93% vote share, AIADMK 20.46%, and BJP (NDA) 11.24%, indicating growth in BJP’s vote share. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigning, BJP hopes to perform better and convert its vote share into seats. This time, BJP is contesting in alliance with AIADMK and other NDA partners. Tamil Nadu has 234 Assembly seats.

In Kerala, the 2021 Assembly elections saw the UDF secure 39.47%, LDF 45.43%, and NDA 12.4% vote share. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, UDF secured 45.21%, LDF 33.60%, NDA 19.24%, and others 2.21%. The state has 140 Assembly seats.

In Assam, the NDA secured 44.5% vote share in the 2021 Assembly elections, with BJP alone securing 33.21%. The Mahajot alliance secured 43.68%, with INC alone at 29.67%. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA secured 46.32% vote share, with BJP alone at 37.43%, while the INDIA alliance secured 39.47%, including 37.48% for INC. Assam has 126 Assembly seats.

In Puducherry, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the INDIA alliance secured 52.73% vote share, while the NDA secured 35.83%. The Union Territory has 33 Assembly seats, but elections are held for 30 seats.

Overall, the BJP-led NDA increased its vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections compared to the 2021 Assembly polls in these states under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and former BJP National President J.P. Nadda. Ultimately, voters will decide the future of the political leaders and parties contesting these Assembly elections.

Authored by:
Rajat Kumar Mohindru
Journalist, Jalandhar City
(Views are personal)