Quote by Dipti Deshpande, Senior Director and Principal Economist, Crisil Limited, on October Monetary Policy
City Air News
Oct 7, 2026 02:17
0
"The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India to change the monetary policy stance to ‘calibrated tightening’ and raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points is in line with our expectations and reflects a precautionary response to an increasingly challenging inflation environment.
Retail inflation has firmed in recent months, while upside risks from crude oil, commodities and food prices have become more pronounced. A calibrated tightening stance allows the central bank the choice to either hike rates or take a pause depending on evolving inflation conditions.
Since the last policy review, oil prices have risen by ~40%, monsoon-related risks have materialised, domestic growth has surprised on the upside, liquidity conditions have eased significantly, and global monetary tightening has gathered pace.
The upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts, the rate action and change in monetary policy stance help align market expectations with evolving macroeconomic realities. Alongside, the central bank is expected to remain committed to maintaining orderly liquidity and financial conditions as the economy enters the festive season.
We see room for another rate hike of 25 basis points in December.
Even with higher interest rates, we expect bank credit growth to rise 14.5-15.5% this fiscal reflecting resilient credit demand and improving economic activity."
