Iran regime change difficult but necessary, says former Israeli diplomat Michael Oren

Washington, March 8 (IANS) Former Israeli Ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, said on Sunday that the war against Iran may require sustained pressure and could last for an extended period unless the current regime in Tehran is replaced.

Speaking in an interview with ABC News, Oren added that Iran's leadership is unlikely to abandon its core policies voluntarily, making regime change a central question in the conflict.

"The DNA of this regime is Jihad," Oren said.

"That's what they're about. They're about regional domination and expanding that domination across the globe."

The former Israeli Ambassador said that expecting the current Iranian leadership to give up its ballistic missile programme or support for militant groups would be unrealistic.

"To say that they're going to give up terror, to say they're going to give up their ballistic missile system is virtually impossible for this regime," he added.

"It's basically talking about identity suicide for them."

The former Israeli Ambassador warned that the conflict could continue for a long time, even if major military targets are degraded.

"I think that the pressure has to continue on Iran," Oren said.

"It may not continue with this intensity."

He said that Israel and its allies would likely need to keep applying pressure to ensure Iran can no longer threaten neighbouring countries or rebuild its military capabilities.

"If you can reduce Iran's ability to shoot at us, to shoot at our neighbours, to shoot at our allies in the region, to conduct terrorist attacks around the world," he said, the campaign could shift into a different phase even if the regime remains in power.

Oren also said the existence of highly enriched uranium stockpiles inside Iran remains a major concern.

"As long as you have that 400 kg of highly-enriched uranium, it only takes a few days to enrich that to missile grade," he added.

"That can be put into a warhead, or it can even be put into a suitcase."

He acknowledged that securing or removing such material could require ground operations.

"That would, I would think, require Special Forces or somebody going in on the ground," the CNN interviewer asked, to which the former Israeli envoy Oren said: "Wouldn't rule it out."

Asked about the possibility of regime change, Oren said political transformations often appear impossible until they suddenly occur.

"Revolutions are always impossible to occur, until they do, in which case they become inevitable," he added.

He noted that revolutions throughout history have often begun with small groups before gaining broader domestic and international support.

"At some stage in this campaign the Opposition, which seems disorganised, in fact can make that type of move," Oren said.

However, he acknowledged that predicting such a tipping point in Iran remains uncertain.

"That doesn't mean it's going to happen here, but it also doesn't mean it's not going to happen."

--IANS

lkj/khz