Defence, AI to shape next phase of India-US ties: Expert

Lalit K Jha

Washington, Dec 23 (IANS) Defence cooperation, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies are likely to anchor the next phase of India-United States engagement as the two sides seek to sustain momentum in strategic sectors despite unresolved political and trade challenges, a senior India-US policy expert said. 

Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation America, told IANS that while high-level political engagement has faced constraints, cooperation in defence, technology and energy has continued to advance and provides a foundation for stabilising bilateral ties in 2026.

“There has been some stabilisation in the India-US relationship,” Jaishankar said, noting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump spoke “at least four times” between mid-September and the end of the year, alongside the resumption of cabinet-level contacts after a brief pause.

He pointed to “some fruitful agreements on defence, on energy” as evidence that practical cooperation has continued even during periods of political strain.

Jaishankar said defence remains one of the most resilient pillars of the partnership. Military-to-military engagement has expanded steadily, with exercises involving all three services, joint training programmes and ongoing defence sales.

“There is, I think, a good sense of military-to-military engagement,” he said, adding that the challenge has historically been in moving beyond sales toward joint defence co-production and development.

While progress in that area has been uneven, Jaishankar said the most promising opportunities lie in advanced and niche capabilities rather than legacy platforms. “The area that will be interesting to watch will be mostly in very, very cutting-edge technologies,” he said, citing autonomous underwater systems and counter-drone capabilities.

In these domains, he said, India has operational requirements, and the United States remains at the technological frontier, creating scope for deeper collaboration. However, he cautioned that progress will depend less on government-to-government agreements and more on private-sector engagement.

“Some of that is, again, less at the government-to-government level and more at the business-to-business level,” he said.

Artificial intelligence represents another area of growing engagement, though Jaishankar said expectations on both sides are not fully aligned. India, he said, is focused on rapid deployment of AI applications that deliver tangible public benefits and commercial viability.

“The emphasis India wants to see (is) very quick applications and use cases for AI that really improve the lives of everyday people,” he said.

The United States, by contrast, is prioritising leadership in cutting-edge AI development, shaped in part by broader strategic competition. “The US, on the other hand, seeks… developing cutting-edge AI applications,” Jaishankar said, adding that the differing objectives limit the overlap more than is often assumed.

Even so, he said cooperation continues where interests intersect. Major US technology firms, including Google, Microsoft and OpenAI, have made significant investments in India, reflecting confidence in India’s digital ecosystem and talent base.

Jaishankar also highlighted the continuity of energy cooperation, describing it as an area where pragmatic agreements have delivered results even as broader political engagement has slowed.

Responding to a question on Quad, Jaishankar said political-level momentum has lagged, with the anticipated leaders’ summit repeatedly deferred. However, he stressed that working-level engagement has continued.

“Working-level contacts have remained,” he said, pointing to counter-terrorism meetings and maritime exercises that have gone ahead under a more focused agenda.

Looking ahead, Jaishankar said progress on trade, particularly tariffs, will be critical to unlocking higher-level political engagement, but he expressed cautious optimism that some resolution could emerge later in 2026, potentially around the time the US hosts the G20 summit.

--IANS

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