All may soon be well in India-US trade relations

Jayanta Bhattacharya

New Delhi, Sep 15 (IANS) Even as positive indicators were lighting up renewed hopes of a resumption of trade negotiations with the United States on Monday, India posted a growth in estimated cumulative exports during April-August 2025 over the same period last year. 

The cumulative exports (merchandise and services) during April-August 2025 are estimated at $349.35 billion, as compared to $329.03 billion last year corresponding, which reflects a growth of 6.18 per cent in the period, according to a statement from the Commerce Ministry.

Despite global uncertainties and fluctuating trade policies, Indian exporters have performed remarkably well, as pointed out by Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal while addressing the media.

However, the full extent of the additional levy may be known from trade figures coming later.

US President Donald Trump’s additional levy of 25 per cent – pushing tariff on imports from India to 50 per cent – was imposed from August 27.

Additional tariffs were primarily described as punitive action over India's significant increase in Russian oil imports, perceived to be profiting Moscow in the war in Ukraine.

But the apparent change in White House weather started showing with Trump’s exchange of pleasantries with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media. His statements later further heralded the coming of a thaw.

Additionally, Trump’s nominee for being the next US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, has also asserted the US President’s incredible relationship with Prime Minister Modi, who, he added, is often earning praises despite criticisms over trade issues.

Meanwhile, Trump’s ire happened to shift more towards Russia and China. He urged NATO countries to impose additional tariffs on China for buying Russian oil.

The US President also said that he was ready to put additional sanctions on Russia if the European Union partners stopped purchasing its oil and joined in a coordinated action against Moscow.

Incidentally, several NATO members are among top buyers of fossil-fuel from Russia, thus weakening alliance pressure on Moscow.  

According to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) August 2025 analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions, the five largest EU importers of Russian fossil fuels paid Russia a combined EUR 979 million for fossil fuels last month.

India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, importing a total of EUR 3.6 billion. Crude oil dominated India’s purchases at 78 per cent (EUR 2.9 billion), followed by coal at 14 per cent (EUR 510 million) and oil products at 8 per cent (EUR 282 million), it added.

In LNG imports from Russia, the EU was the largest buyer at 50 per cent, followed by China (21) and Japan (18 per cent), while for Russia's pipeline gas, EU was the again at top, purchasing 35 per cent, followed by China (30) and Türkiye (28).

In terms of Russia’s crude oil, China bought 47 per cent of Russia’s exports in August, followed by India (38), the EU (6), and Turkiye (6 per cent), according to the analysis.

Thus, Trump’s formula appears to force everyone to act in concert to cease Russian oil purchases and snarl China’s energy-linked exports through high tariffs – if not with stick, then a carrot, or vice versa.

Meanwhile, US trade negotiators are expected to reach Delhi on Tuesday for the first in-person meeting following Washington imposing additional tariffs on India last month.

Earlier, the sixth round of talks were scheduled to take place on August 25, but postponed by the US.

--IANS

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